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Jacob Wolinsky of Forbes reports to beware trading based on 13F data which reveals a preference for tech stocks:

There’s no denying that the market has been particularly turbulent in
recent months as inflation soars. Market watchers are debating whether
inflation has peaked, which will impact which stocks ride the wave and
which sink.

The 13F filings from Q4 are in

As a result, individual investors may be watching the smart money
even more closely as they try to choose stocks wisely despite the
extreme volatility. Hedge funds and other institutional investors have filed their quarterly 13Fs with the Securities and Exchange Commission, providing a trail of breadcrumbs for individual investors to follow.

An overhead analysis of hedge fund trades during the fourth quarter
shows that tech stocks received a boost from the smart money, as
institutional investors boosted their tech holdings by about 1% in
aggregate. However, things have changed so rapidly that it may no longer
be wise to stock up on tech.

Among the biggest gainers in tech during the fourth quarter were
Nokia, VMware and Clarivate. Meanwhile, hedge funds slashed their
communications holdings by about 1%, with Meta Platforms, Charter
Communications and Comcast leading the decline.

Despite the broad-based selloff that has swept through tech
temporarily at different times over the last several months, hedge funds
widely rotated into tech during the fourth quarter, shunning
communications in the process. However, rising interest rates threaten
both tech and communications this year.

Rivian Automotive

A review of the fourth-quarter 13F filings also reveals one standout
stock. During the fourth quarter, there was quite a bit of activity in
electric vehicle manufacturer Rivian Automotive. Rivian has trended
steadily lower since its peak in mid-November and is down more than 34%
over the last six months. Year to date, the automaker’s stock is down
more than 35%.

The latest 13F filings suggest that several major institutional
investors decided to buy the dip in Rivian stock. Among the well-known
investors who established positions in Rivian during the fourth quarter
was George Soros, who disclosed a position of almost 20 million shares
in the electric pickup maker.

Phillipe Laffont’s Coatue Management established a new position in
Rivian, along with Lee Ainslie’s Maverick Capital, Dan Loeb’s Third
Point, Andreas Halvorsen’s Viking Global, and Chase Coleman’s Tiger
Global.

Movements in tech in Q4

Soros also established a position in Peloton Interactive, while Tiger
Global added to its stake. On the other hand, Coatue and Viking Global
cut back on the exercise tech company. Baupost Group
bought Fiserv, Grab Holdings, and NortonLifeLock and added to Qorvo but
exited eBay and cut its stake in Facebook parent Meta Platforms,
Alphabet, and Intel.

Coatue exited 3D Systems, Robinhood Markets and Nuance
Communications. It boosted its stakes in Tesla, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and
Amazon but cut back on Door Dash, Twilio, and Snowflake. Maverick Capital
added to its positions in Amazon, Activision Blizzard, and NVIDIA but
cut its stakes in Coupang and Adobe Systems. Leon Cooperman’s Omega
Advisors exited Alibaba and Meta Platforms, while Soros Fund Management
added to its stake in Uber but cut back on Amazon and Alphabet.

Tiger Global added to its stakes in Snowflake but went against the
push toward tech by slashing its positions in Microsoft, Roblox and
Amazon. David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital established a new position in
Intel but slashed its stakes in GoPro and Twitter, while Glenview
Capital established new positions in Activision Blizzard, Alibaba and
Amazon and added to its Uber stake. It exited Meta Platforms and slashed
its stake in Fiserv.

Third Point established a new position in Grab Holdings and boosted
its stake in Dell while maintaining its positions in Microsoft and
Alphabet. The fund exited DiDi Global, Intel, Meta Platforms, and
Activision Blizzard. Paul Singer’s Elliott Management maintained its
position in Twitter. ValueAct boosted its stake in Fiserv, while Jeffrey
Smith’s Starboard Value established a new position in GoDaddy and
exited Box Inc.

Viking Global established new positions in Twilio and Take-Two
Interactive and added to its stakes in Uber and Meta Platforms. It also
bucked the tech uptrend by exiting Snowflake. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire
Hathaway, which has long avoided tech under his leadership, established
a new position in Activision Blizzard and maintained its positions in
Apple, Microsoft and Amazon. The firm exited Sirius XM Holdings.

David Tepper’s Appaloosa exited Twitter, Alibaba, and Qualcomm and
cut back on Uber. Corvex Management maintained its positions in
Microsoft and Alphabet but exited Activision Blizzard. Stanley
Druckenmiller’s Duquesne established a new position in Snap Inc and
increased its stakes in Coupang, Carvana, and Microsoft while exiting
Meta Platforms and cutting back on Amazon and Alphabet.

Tiger Global established a new position in Grab Holdings and boosted
its stakes in JD.com, Carvana, Snowflake, and Door Dash while
maintaining its positions in Meta Platforms, Alibaba, and Netflix.
The
fund cut back on Roblox, Microsoft, and Uber. Baupost Group established
new positions in Grab Holdings and Fiserv, boosted its stake in Qorvo,
and exited eBay. It also cut back on Intel and Meta Platforms.

Soros cut back on Activision Blizzard, exited Coupang, and boosted its stake in Uber.

Communications

Coatue bucked the trend against communications by establishing a new
position in Discovery Communications. Greenlight Capital also
established a new position in Discovery Communications. Third Point also
went against the trend in communications by establishing a new position
in Comcast, while Viking Global boosted its Comcast and T-Mobile
stakes.

Nelson Peltz’s Trian Fund maintained its position in Comcast.

Berkshire Hathaway cut back on Charter Communications, while
Appaloosa, Duquesne, and Corvex cut back on T-Mobile. Elliott Management
maintained its position in AT&T.

Payments and financials

Coatue and Corvex established new positions in Visa and Mastercard,
while Maverick Capital boosted its stakes in both credit card companies
but exited Blackstone.
Appaloosa exited Visa, while Corvex Management
established new positions in Visa and Mastercard. Berkshire Hathaway cut
back on Visa and Mastercard and maintained its positions in Bank of
America, Bank of New York Mellon, and US Bancorp.

Greenlight established a new position in Global Payments as Glenview
Capital added to its stake in the company. Glenview also exited Visa,
while Corvex maintained its position in JPMorgan. ValueAct maintained
its position in Citigroup, and Viking Global established a new position
in American International Group. Soros cut back on JPMorgan. Tiger
Global boosted its Square stake.

Other notable activity

Other key exits include PG&E by Baupost. Appaloosa also slashed
its stake in PG&E alongside Third Point, which also cut back on Walt
Disney alongside Corvex. Coatue established a new position in Pfizer,
while Omega boosted its stake in General Motors alongside Soros.

Appaloosa established a new position in GM. Third Point established
new positions in Hertz and Expedia while Duquesne maintained its
positions in Airbnb and Booking Holdings and exited Penn National
Gaming. Duquesne also cut back on Expedia. Viking Global established a
new position in Zillow and boosted its General Electric stake. Soros
added to its stake in Caesars Entertainment.

What about the current quarter?

While many individual investors are making their decisions based on
this week’s 13F filings, which show stock movements during the fourth
quarter, it’s important to look forward rather than backward. It’s no
secret that interest rates are moving higher in 2022, but the question
is how quickly the Fed will raise them. However, when rates do rise,
they will be damaging to tech companies that carry heavy loads of debt
.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite entered correction territory in
January and has continued to struggle. Unprofitable tech names that
became the poster children of the pandemic bull market will face serious
issues when debt is no longer cheap. And as inflation rages, investors
will naturally seek out companies with strong brands and the pricing
power to pass their higher costs along to customers.

This week, we learned about what the world’s top money managers bought and sold last quarter.

The problem? Apart from the lag in reporting (45-day lag), it’s been a bloodbath in the stock market except for energy stocks which are once again leading every other sector by a considerable margin:

1645243694 996 Top Funds Activity in Q4 2021 Top Funds' Activity in Q4 2021

Yes, tensions between Russia, Ukraine and the US have boosted oil prices and added fuel to the inflation fire, but the point is it’s been a terrible start to the year and communication services (XLC), real estate (XLRE) and technology stocks (QQQ) have beared the brunt of the selloff thus far.

And when you really drill down, it’s far, far worse.

Hyper growth darlings and other popular stocks from just a year argo are being decimated.

We know what happened to Meta Platforms’ (Facebook) stock two weeks ago, but consider these stocks which got clobbered this week:

Top Funds Activity in Q4 2021 Top Funds' Activity in Q4 2021
1645243695 641 Top Funds Activity in Q4 2021 Top Funds' Activity in Q4 2021
1645243695 132 Top Funds Activity in Q4 2021 Top Funds' Activity in Q4 2021

And this is just a small sample of the carnage this week.

Below, you see which large cap stocks got dinged this week (full list available here):

1645243696 289 Top Funds Activity in Q4 2021 Top Funds' Activity in Q4 2021

And here are the large cap stocks that have gotten dinged so far this year (full list here):

1645243696 663 Top Funds Activity in Q4 2021 Top Funds' Activity in Q4 2021

Geez! I look at these stocks and remember when they were flying high last year and everyone on CNBC was touting them stating they will go higher.

BOOM! The liquidity orgy is over and it’s painful, especially for hyper-growth Ark Innovation stocks, they have been decimated with the exception of everyone’s favorite ESG poster boy:

1645243696 925 Top Funds Activity in Q4 2021 Top Funds' Activity in Q4 2021

Will Tesla succumb to the same carnage that has hit other Ark Innovation stocks?

I think it’s only a matter of time but shorting this stock is just as dangerous as going long here. Still, mark my words, when this stock craters, it will be a seismic bloodbath.

Anyway, I used to invest in top hedge funds and grill their managers hard on their positions, macro views and risk management (most are terrible at managing downside risks).

I can sit down with all these “gurus” and drill down into their portfolios and point out the dogs and what’s worth holding on to.

Right now is a dangerous time to be invested in stocks and bonds. 

Everyone is wondering if the Nasdaq will retest its monthly low and hold or keep sinking lower:

1645243697 513 Top Funds Activity in Q4 2021 Top Funds' Activity in Q4 2021

I have no clue, the only thing I know is investors need to manage their risk carefully here because the monetary coronavirus that afflicted bears two years ago is gone.

One question I always get, especially from young traders, is can stocks go a lot lower?

My answer is unequivocal: “You bet your ass they can go a lot lower”.

Unless you’ve lived through the tech meltdown of 2001 and the great financial crisis meltdown, you have no clue about how it feels being in a nasty bear market.

And as I stated in late January, Jeremy Grantham might be right, this might be the nastiest bear market ever, even nastier than the 1973-74 bear market.

Who knows? Maybe not but always, always be prepared for anything and manage your downside risk very carefully.

Never mind chasing Chase Coleman and other gurus, that a sure road to ruin!

On that cheery note, have fun looking into the portfolios of the world’s most famous money managers.

The links below take you straight to their top holdings and then click to see where they increased and decreased
their holdings (see column headings).


Top multi-strategy and event driven hedge funds

As the name implies, these hedge funds invest across a wide variety of
hedge fund strategies like L/S Equity, L/S credit, global macro,
convertible arbitrage, risk arbitrage, volatility arbitrage, merger
arbitrage, distressed debt and statistical pair trading. Below are links
to the holdings of some top multi-strategy hedge funds I track
closely:

1) Appaloosa LP

2) Citadel Advisors

3) Balyasny Asset Management

4) Point72 Asset Management (Steve Cohen)

5) Peak6 Investments

6) Kingdon Capital Management

7) Millennium Management

8) Farallon Capital Management

9) HBK Investments

10) Highbridge Capital Management

11) Highland Capital Management

12) Hudson Bay Capital Management

13) Pentwater Capital Management

14) Sculptor Capital Management (formerly known as Och-Ziff Capital Management)

15) ExodusPoint Capital Management

16) Carlson Capital Management

17) Magnetar Capital

18) Whitebox Advisors

19) QVT Financial

20) Paloma Partners

21) Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisors

22) York Capital Management

Top Global Macro Hedge Funds and Family Offices

These hedge funds gained notoriety because of George Soros, arguably the
best and most famous hedge fund manager. Global macros typically
invest across fixed income, currency, commodity and equity markets.

George Soros, Carl Icahn, Stanley Druckenmiller, Julian Robertson  have
converted their hedge funds into family offices to manage their own
money.

1) Soros Fund Management

2) Icahn Associates

3) Duquesne Family Office (Stanley Druckenmiller)

4) Bridgewater Associates

5) Pointstate Capital Partners

6) Caxton Associates (Bruce Kovner)

7) Tudor Investment Corporation (Paul Tudor Jones)

8) Tiger Management (Julian Robertson)

9) Discovery Capital Management (Rob Citrone)

10 Moore Capital Management

11) Element Capital

12) Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Trust (Michael Larson, the man behind Gates)

Top Quant and Market Neutral Hedge Funds

These funds use sophisticated mathematical algorithms to make their
returns, typically using high-frequency models so they churn their
portfolios often. A few of them have outstanding long-term track records
and many believe quants are taking over the world.
They typically only hire PhDs in mathematics, physics and computer
science to develop their algorithms. Market neutral funds will
engage in pair trading to remove market beta. Some are large asset
managers that specialize in factor investing.

1) Alyeska Investment Group

2) Renaissance Technologies

3) DE Shaw & Co.

4) Two Sigma Investments

5) Cubist Systematic Strategies (a quant division of Point72)

6) Numeric Investors now part of Man Group

7) Analytic Investors

8) AQR Capital Management

9) Dimensional Fund Advisors

10) Quantitative Investment Management

11) Oxford Asset Management

12) PDT Partners

13) Angelo Gordon

14) Quantitative Systematic Strategies

15) Quantitative Investment Management

16) Bayesian Capital Management

17) SABA Capital Management

18) Quadrature Capital

19) Simplex Trading

Top Deep Value, Activist, Event Driven and Distressed Debt Funds

These are among the top long-only funds that everyone tracks. They
include funds run by legendary investors like Warren Buffet, Seth
Klarman, Ron Baron and Ken Fisher. Activist investors like to make
investments in companies where management lacks the proper incentives to
maximize shareholder value. They differ from traditional L/S hedge
funds by having a more concentrated portfolio. Distressed debt funds
typically invest in debt of a company but sometimes take equity
positions.

1) Abrams Capital Management (the one-man wealth machine)

2) Berkshire Hathaway

3) TCI Fund Management

4) Baron Partners Fund (click here to view other Baron funds)

5) BHR Capital

6) Fisher Asset Management

7) Baupost Group

8) Fairfax Financial Holdings

9) Fairholme Capital

10) Gotham Asset Management

11) Fir Tree Partners

12) Elliott Investment Management (Paul Singer)


13) Jana Partners

14) Miller Value Partners (Bill Miller)

15) Highfields Capital Management

16) Eminence Capital

17) Pershing Square Capital Management

18) New Mountain Vantage  Advisers

19) Atlantic Investment Management

20) Polaris Capital Management

21) Third Point

22) Marcato Capital Management

23) Glenview Capital Management

24) Apollo Management

25) Avenue Capital

26) Armistice Capital

27) Blue Harbor Group

28) Brigade Capital Management

29) Caspian Capital

30) Kerrisdale Advisers

31) Knighthead Capital Management

32) Relational Investors

33) Roystone Capital Management

34) Scopia Capital Management

35) Schneider Capital Management

36) ValueAct Capital

37) Vulcan Value Partners

38) Okumus Fund Management

39) Eagle Capital Management

40) Sasco Capital

41) Lyrical Asset Management

42) Gabelli Funds

43) Brave Warrior Advisors

44) Matrix Asset Advisors

45) Jet Capital

46) Conatus Capital Management

47) Starboard Value

48) Pzena Investment Management

49) Trian Fund Management

50) Oaktree Capital Management

Top Long/Short Hedge Funds

These hedge funds go long shares they think will rise in value and short
those they think will fall. Along with global macro funds, they
command the bulk of hedge fund assets. There are many L/S funds but
here is a small sample of some well-known funds.

1) Adage Capital Management

2) Viking Global Investors

3) Greenlight Capital

4) Maverick Capital

5) Pointstate Capital Partners

6) Marathon Asset Management

7) Tiger Global Management (Chase Coleman)

8) Coatue Management

9) D1 Capital Partners

10) Artis Capital Management

11) Fox Point Capital Management

12) Jabre Capital Partners

13) Lone Pine Capital

14) Paulson & Co.

15) Bronson Point Management

16) Hoplite Capital Management

17) LSV Asset Management

18) Hussman Strategic Advisors

19) Cantillon Capital Management

20) Brookside Capital Management

21) Blue Ridge Capital

22) Iridian Asset Management

23) Clough Capital Partners

24) GLG Partners LP

25) Cadence Capital Management

26) Honeycomb Asset Management

27) New Mountain Vantage

28) Penserra Capital Management

29) Eminence Capital

30) Steadfast Capital Management

31) Brookside Capital Management

32) PAR Capital Capital Management

33) Gilder, Gagnon, Howe & Co

34) Brahman Capital

35) Bridger Management

36) Kensico Capital Management

37) Kynikos Associates

38) Soroban Capital Partners

39) Passport Capital

40) Pennant Capital Management

41) Mason Capital Management

42) Tide Point Capital Management

43) Sirios Capital Management

44) Hayman Capital Management

45) Highside Capital Management

46) Tremblant Capital Group

47) Decade Capital Management

48) Suvretta Capital Management

49) Bloom Tree Partners

50) Cadian Capital Management

51) Matrix Capital Management

52) Senvest Partners

53) Falcon Edge Capital Management

54) Park West Asset Management

55) Melvin Capital Partners

56) Owl Creek Asset Management

57) Portolan Capital Management

58) Proxima Capital Management

59) Tourbillon Capital Partners

60) Impala Asset Management

61) Valinor Management

62) Marshall Wace

63) Light Street Capital Management

64) Rock Springs Capital Management

65) Rubric Capital Management

66) Whale Rock Capital

67) Skye Global Management

68) York Capital Management

69) Zweig-Dimenna Associates

Top Sector and Specialized Funds

I like tracking activity funds that specialize in real estate, biotech,
healthcare, retail and other sectors like mid, small and micro caps.
Here are some funds worth tracking closely.

1) Avoro Capital Advisors (formerly Venbio Select Advisors)

2) Baker Brothers Advisors

3) Perceptive Advisors

4) Broadfin Capital

5) Healthcor Management

6) Orbimed Advisors

7) Deerfield Management

8) BB Biotech AG

9) Birchview Capital

10) Ghost Tree Capital

11) Sectoral Asset Management

12) Oracle Investment Management

13) Palo Alto Investors

14) Consonance Capital Management

15) Camber Capital Management

16) Redmile Group

17) RTW Investments

18) Bridger Capital Management

19) Boxer Capital

20) Bridgeway Capital Management

21) Cohen & Steers

22) Cardinal Capital Management

23) Munder Capital Management

24) Diamondhill Capital Management

25) Cortina Asset Management

26) Geneva Capital Management

27) Criterion Capital Management

28) Daruma Capital Management

29) 12 West Capital Management

30) RA Capital Management

31) Sarissa Capital Management

32) Rock Springs Capital Management

33) Senzar Asset Management

34) Southeastern Asset Management

35) Sphera Funds

36) Tang Capital Management

37) Thomson Horstmann & Bryant

38) Ecor1 Capital

39) Opaleye Management

40) NEA Management Company

41) Great Point Partners

42) Tekla Capital Management

43) Van Berkom and Associates

Mutual Funds and Asset Managers

Mutual funds and large asset managers are not hedge funds but their
sheer size makes them important players. Some asset managers have
excellent track records. Below, are a few funds investors track closely.

1) Fidelity

2) BlackRock Inc

3) Wellington Management

4) AQR Capital Management

5) Sands Capital Management

6) Brookfield Asset Management

7) Dodge & Cox

8) Eaton Vance Management

9) Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co.

10) Geode Capital Management

11) Goldman Sachs Group

12) JP Morgan Chase & Co.

13) Morgan Stanley

14) Manulife Asset Management

15) UBS Asset Management

16) Barclays Global Investor

17) Epoch Investment Partners

18) Thornburg Investment Management

19) Kornitzer Capital Management

20) Batterymarch Financial Management

21) Tocqueville Asset Management

22) Neuberger Berman

23) Winslow Capital Management

24) Herndon Capital Management

25) Artisan Partners

26) Great West Life Insurance Management

27) Lazard Asset Management

28) Janus Capital Management

29) Franklin Resources

30) Capital Research Global Investors

31) T. Rowe Price

32) First Eagle Investment Management

33) Frontier Capital Management

34) Akre Capital Management

35) Brandywine Global

36) Brown Capital Management

37) Victory Capital Management

38) Orbis

39) Ariel Investments 

40) ARK Investment Management

Canadian Asset Managers

Here are a few Canadian funds I track closely:

1) Addenda Capital

2) Letko, Brosseau and Associates

3) Fiera Capital Corporation

4) West Face Capital

5) Hexavest

6) 1832 Asset Management

7) Jarislowsky, Fraser

8) Connor, Clark & Lunn Investment Management

9) TD Asset Management

10) CIBC Asset Management

11) Beutel, Goodman & Co

12) Greystone Managed Investments

13) Mackenzie Financial Corporation

14) Great West Life Assurance Co

15) Guardian Capital

16) Scotia Capital

17) AGF Investments

18) Montrusco Bolton

19) CI Investments

20) Venator Capital Management

21) Van Berkom and Associates

22) Formula Growth

23) Hillsdale Investment Management

Pension Funds, Endowment Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds and the Fed’s Swiss Surrogate

Last but not least, I the track activity of some pension funds,
endowment, sovereign wealth funds and the Swiss National Bank (aka the Fed’s Swiss surrogate). Below, a
sample of the funds I track closely:

1) Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMco)

2) Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan

3) Canada Pension Plan Investment Board

4) Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec

5) OMERS Administration Corp.

6) Healthcare of Ontario Pension Pan (HOOPP)

7) British Columbia Investment Management Corporation (BCI)

8) Public Sector Pension Investment Board (PSP Investments)

9) PGGM Investments

10) APG All Pensions Group

11) California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS)

12) California State Teachers Retirement System (CalSTRS)

13) New York State Common Fund

14) New York State Teachers Retirement System

15) State Board of Administration of Florida Retirement System

16) State of Wisconsin Investment Board

17) State of New Jersey Common Pension Fund

18) Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio

19) STRS Ohio

20) Teacher Retirement System of Texas

21) Virginia Retirement Systems

22) TIAA CREF investment Management

23) Harvard Management Co.

24) Norges Bank

25) Nordea Investment Management

26) Korea Investment Corp.

27) Singapore Temasek Holdings

28) Yale Endowment Fund

29) Swiss National Bank (aka, the Fed’s Swiss surrogate)

Below, Leslie Picker reports Berkshire’s new stake in Activision Blizzard in its 13F filing.

Second, Jim Cramer, Mad Money host, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss his first take on what to expect in the markets. He thinks it’s a difficult time to buy right now.

Third, yesterday’s interview with ARK’s Cathie Wood and her contention that her company’s portfolio is extremely undervalued. With CNBC’s Scott Wapner and the ‘Halftime Report’ traders, Stephanie Link, Jason Snipe, Josh Brown and Shannon Saccocia.

Fourth, RiskReversal Advisors’ Dan Nathan joins ‘Closing Bell’ to discuss the markets, the impact of today’s Fed comments and what Putin’s threat to Ukraine actually means for investors.

Lastly, Rich Bernstein, Richard Bernstein Advisors CEO, joins ‘Closing Bell’ to discuss today’s market activity and what’s been driving stocks lower.

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